So let's look at the "Hotspot" pros and cons. If you read the sales pitches for NE Brazil it is justifiied by the key premise that prices are cheap and will certainly rise and that there will be a large influx of tourism. This potential rise is justified by 3 or 4 facts, a developing economy, hugh infrastructure investment and a freeing up of restrictive laws on foreigners. All these factors are linked but without question, communications are they key to this, as without a growth in tourism there will not be an increased demand for property sales or rentals. There is internal and external tourism but all the positive arguments surround the assumption that a new airport and bridge in Natal will precipitate this growth. Let's look at the new airport first. It is openly admitted by the Brasilian Authorites that they don't have the finance in place to complete this project and are seeking outside investment/management to fund this project. But, assuming they achieve this, it is hoped that it will be partially open in 2010. London Heathrow is the largest international airport in the world with years of experience and easy access to finance. LHR Terminal 5 will open next year after 7 years of planning and construction. T5 did not need full airport infrastructure such as runways, taxiways, air traffic control, major access etc etc as it is a terminal and not an entire airport, yet even considering this it took twice as long to complete as an entire airport is projecting. 2015/20 is much more likely for a full airport, "one of the largest in the world" than the ludicrous assumption of three years time. Lets look at the likely tourist influx and some numbers. If an extra 250,000 international tourists a year go to Natal (which is a small number) Natal needs to receive another 625 flights a year holding 400 passengers (which is generous) or 12 new flights a week. But the season is not 52 weeks a year, it is roughly 16 weeks (also being generous). That is 39 new long haul flights per week. The Dominican Republic is probably the world's most successful cheap vacation destination with perhaps Mexico. When did they ever experience 39 extra long haul flights per week and they have the advantage of direct flights with non Visa requirements from the USA? (and they are closer than Brazil to the USA, 5 hours max). If there are 39 new flights a week into Natal, primarily from Europe at least 5/6 of these will have to come from the UK. There are only 2 charter operators now in the UK TUI and T Cooke and they are going to add 6 flights per week? Scheduled there are also only 2 operators BA/Vigin..they only operate about 6 flights max to Orlando..so why will they operate more flights to Brazil?
The new Bridge, apart from it being a major project I fail to see why this will precipitate a growth in foreign tourism? All this bridge will do is assist the movements of tourists from the north side into the city...they'll need it as there won't be a supermarket in the north for another 5 years! Are residents of Natal going to drive north just to drink over-priced caipirinhas and even if they do, how is this going to fill luxury golf resorts? Brasilians don't play golf! Pricing, even if there is an influx of flights, which will never be "lo-cost" airlines prices from Europe will never be less than £400/€600 and if you look at a family cost, individual vacations (i.e apartment rentals) are highly uncompetitive compared to "all inclusive" packages. My guess is double the cost. As tourism "explodes" to NE Brasil, so will all-inclusive packages and most of these will be centred around Ponta Negra for at least another 6/7 years. But even if hotels do open on the north side it will always be preferable for families to go "all inclusive". Rightly orworngly Brazil has a connotation of "danger", robbings muggins etc etc. Talk to anyone about Brazil and they'll say "it is dangerous?" People like all inclusive as it makes them feel safer. So, to my mind these factors are the key to a real hotspot and not the over optimistic manipulation of te facts and the wishful thinking of excited investors. Brazil will be ahotspot alright....but for all inclusive packages, not for one off rentals and sales.
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