First, let me add Blackrock is also pulling out. For every seller there has to be a buyer. Usually when the big boys come in, the little ones follow and the little ones are those left hanging. This happens in stock market, bond market, commodities (gold, metal especially). You are right, many of the big boys are still holding on to commercial/office properties. The thinking there, I believe is that the economy is booming , more business will come in. I also don't think there's a rent control/restriction on office space (I could be wrong). Now a booming market typically drives up housing market. Unfortunately, German's rental law just prevent you from raising the rent. On website you can check out is finfacts. When big boys buy, there's fanfare. When they sell... they are hush hush.
Also, rising interest rate is another concern. The Americans got hit hard with all their sub-primed loan with low introductory mortgage. When the rate rises, then there goes the neighborhood. Now it seems EU central bank is planning to raise the rate next Spring and it can become a conern.
I don't know much about Merrill Lynch, so can't speak for them.
You raised a very good point that listing time has increased, so the market might have slowed. I am not aware of this.
I will not invest in Croatia, Bulgaria. No offense, the risks in those area are just too great.
Currently China/India properties are going up fast, don't you think it's better to invest there? After all, if my expected return in these area net me 20% after 3 years. Meanwhile, in Germany, after 3 years, I net only 10%, wouldn't it be wiser to invest in an area that has proven to be booming and still going strong instead of a laggard or stand still area? Just my thoughts. And yes, I am exploring to buy in India and China, but seems to be much more difficult for foreign investor. I guess I am looking at this similar to that of investing in equity market. Between stock A and stock B, if stock A should appreciate by 10% and give you 1% dividend vs stock B which looks like would appreciate by 5% and give you 1% dividend, wouldn't you buy stock A instead of B?
And yes, if the right deal comes along in Germany, I would buy. However, as Reindeer, it would be a long term hold instead of short term.
Disclaimer: the above is just my point of view. I shall not be responsible should you lose money based on my views. However, should you be profitable, please contact me if you wish to share the wealth.
