As I first mentioned, comparing arrivals only is pointless unless we can also compare spend per capita of those arrivals. We know that international arrivals to Natal in Jan and Feb 2008 have decreased by 15.74% (8.000 passengers) but domestic arrivals have increased by 23% (53.500 passengers). But what happened to the spend per capita? Is this shift positive for the region and the real estate market or negative?
Initially one would assume it is negative. Less international tourists on the ground should relate to less sales. The official reply from the government is that a shift is happening from cheap charter flight tourists who come to the region and fill bags with food from the breakfast buffet to eat on the beach to higher end tourists who will spend more in restaurants and local commerce.
For example (amounts are exagerated to get my point across):
1) Ten tourists come to Natal and spend 1 real each in a week = 10 reais
2) Ten tourists come to Natal and spend 5 reais each in a week = 50 reais
3) Three tourists come to Natal and spend 1 real each in a week = 3 reais
4) Three tourists come to Natal and spend 5 reais each in a week = 15 reais
So for the government, whereas option 2 is the best possible choice, option 4 is better than option 1 or 3 with option 3 being the worst of course. That is assuming that the aforementioned spend is taxed. For tourism related services, it is a matter of much contention which is better? To compare it to popular UK holiday destinations should Natal be a Benidorm style "drink as much beer as you can before you pass out" destination or should it be a carribean type destination? (again using extremes)
Without being too snooty, I think someone who can afford a little more on their holiday might be inclined to buy property more than someone who can't afford that little bit extra. But that's only my opinion.
Anyway, with that in mind, this is what was reported regarding Q1 2008 tourism revenue:
Diário de Natal Online - Esportes
Revenue generated by tourism has gone up by 23% for the country. Unfortunately we don't have the numbers for Natal, only for the whole country. Would be interesting to see if the revenue per capita for the state of RN has increased despite the shift.