Brazil Flight Information!!

[Golfingworld]

Robh, you clearly don't know much about the airline business! Out of the UK there are no direct flights from the UK to Natal between April and October. In winter there are 350 seats only per week on one Flight with Thomsom. Any scheduled carrier out of UK has to go via Miami/SP/Rio or Lisbon or Madrid SP/Rio. There is one UK charter flight per week to Salvador with 1st Choice, Airtours and T Cooke have just merged and cancelled to Brazil, and 1st Choice is only April/Oct. Internal flights are hard to book from outside Brasil and nobody is currently rushing to fly TAM due to their unfortunate incident in SP. TAM do not fly to the UK, only Paris. Brasil and in fact South America is very inaccesible from The UK and prices remain as the last bastion of high airline prices. South Africa, which is a much more ttractive destination for Brits (due to language culture, prices, no jet lag) have still not liberalised thier prices, carriers or hubs. Low cost flights have not arrived for long-haul as the model doesn't work for longer distance. If it did work you'd be sure that Mr O'Leary would have been up there like the proverbial rat! So, into Natal there are only 350 direct seats per week for only 6 months ex UK. If one uses TAP, which I wouldn't recommend, firstly one has to use LHR/LGW or if you are lucky MAN then transit through Lisbon and pay a minimum of £750. Air Europa run a weekly charter from Spain and from Scandinavia set aside at least 20 hours for the journey. Overseas property booms are built on pure economics, supply and demand and easy accessibility..please explain to me how all the above "easy flights" which provide a maximum capacity of 2000 people a week from the whole of Europe are going to fill 10,000 beds and create an upturn in demand and huge rental guarantees? Rightly, you pointed out the American situation but they would be "bums on seats" and only 6/8 hours away, but due to the Visa situation there will be no rush to Brazil. All the arguments about Brazil do not stack up and Europeans will never be able to get there for less than £4/500 (€600/700). Nothing (nada de nada) happens quickly or on time in Brazil, least of all persuading centrist politicians that Natal airport will now become the central hub for the entire continent and snatch away all the incoming international flights from Rio or SP. It just ain't gonna happen. If it is likely, look at J'burg/Capetown, Casablanca/Marrakesh, and even Madrid/BCN..tell me where you can go from Spain without going through Madrid..if the Spanish who are very forward thinking won't let Madrid go as a hub, tell me why Rio and SP will? You are living in "cloud cuckoo land" sorry.

[robh]

Originally Posted by Golfingworld

Robh, you clearly don't know much about the airline business! Out of the UK there are no direct flights from the UK to Natal between April and October. In winter there are 350 seats only per week on one Flight with Thomsom. Any scheduled carrier out of UK has to go via Miami/SP/Rio or Lisbon or Madrid SP/Rio. There is one UK charter flight per week to Salvador with 1st Choice, Airtours and T Cooke have just merged and cancelled to Brazil, and 1st Choice is only April/Oct. Internal flights are hard to book from outside Brasil and nobody is currently rushing to fly TAM due to their unfortunate incident in SP. TAM do not fly to the UK, only Paris. Brasil and in fact South America is very inaccesible from The UK and prices remain as the last bastion of high airline prices. South Africa, which is a much more ttractive destination for Brits (due to language culture, prices, no jet lag) have still not liberalised thier prices, carriers or hubs. Low cost flights have not arrived for long-haul as the model doesn't work for longer distance. If it did work you'd be sure that Mr O'Leary would have been up there like the proverbial rat! So, into Natal there are only 350 direct seats per week for only 6 months ex UK. If one uses TAP, which I wouldn't recommend, firstly one has to use LHR/LGW or if you are lucky MAN then transit through Lisbon and pay a minimum of £750. Air Europa run a weekly charter from Spain and from Scandinavia set aside at least 20 hours for the journey. Overseas property booms are built on pure economics, supply and demand and easy accessibility..please explain to me how all the above "easy flights" which provide a maximum capacity of 2000 people a week from the whole of Europe are going to fill 10,000 beds and create an upturn in demand and huge rental guarantees? Rightly, you pointed out the American situation but they would be "bums on seats" and only 6/8 hours away, but due to the Visa situation there will be no rush to Brazil. All the arguments about Brazil do not stack up and Europeans will never be able to get there for less than £4/500 (€600/700). Nothing (nada de nada) happens quickly or on time in Brazil, least of all persuading centrist politicians that Natal airport will now become the central hub for the entire continent and snatch away all the incoming international flights from Rio or SP. It just ain't gonna happen. If it is likely, look at J'burg/Capetown, Casablanca/Marrakesh, and even Madrid/BCN..tell me where you can go from Spain without going through Madrid..if the Spanish who are very forward thinking won't let Madrid go as a hub, tell me why Rio and SP will? You are living in "cloud cuckoo land" sorry.

All I can say to you is don't invest in Brazil, but if you are going to maybe you should do some further research first.

Regards,
Rob.

[nickohorny]

Golfingworld, you do realise Natal is actually not an emerging market?? Well it is for foreigners but the brazillians pack it out all the time, it is where they holiday (mostly rich.)

Why would they bother going anywhere else in the world when they have paraidse sitting on there very coastline?

[Golfingworld]

Gentlemen, Quite simply I am opening the debate and putting the other case. Firstly I have done extensive research in the last 8 months and have been to Natal twice. I have also been to Rio and other parts of South America. The airline analysis is fact, based on extensive research, if anyone can find me a direct Uk flight into Natal in the next 3 months for less than £700 please tell me. On other issues, during my 2 visits to Natal over 4 months, I am yet to see a man with a wheelbarrow, a bucket or a spade! There are three main tower blocks on the Ponta Negra front with absolutely no action happening. The cranes didn't move in 4 months. There are allegedly issues related to some European "developers" which are dubious and personally I sat next to a guy on the plane who was going back to try and find his €7000 deposit. He was pretty drunk when I next met him as he was sure he had lost it. There are other issues, car hire is expensive and that is before you pulled every day of the week for being "a gringo that is likely to pay a fine". I got pulled for this for no reason. Health, what's the score there, what is covered and where are the medical centres near to the development areas? Golf could be good news as the place won't be full of hordes of weekend away golfers..but if it won't how do you fill your newly completed apartment? The plusses, all of these negatives make it a positive as there cannot be a stampede there (due to lack of cheap flights) which means prices should be stable for the early purchasers. But, the Pound and Euro is at a high against the Real but why haven't prices dropped? The real market for development in my view is in Ponta Negra as there are a lot of very cheap 2nd hand properties that need fixing up and there is land at the back. Ponta Negra could become a "South Beach" in years to come and anyone buying now for under US$100k could do quite well. Plus, this is a great beach area, good restaurants and bars etc. It is close to town, good hipermercados and admin stuff. But, I personally wouldn't rush and my version of "doing some more research" is to throw in all the difficult questions and see what comes back. The good news is, if I can be convinced I am sure many more are a lot easier.

[nickohorny]

wow, your good!!

With regards to the flights from UK etc, surely this would change within 2 years time, or one would hope so, with the new airport built, with the hype surrounding it -with Ronaldo getting ready for retiremement!!,

It is a big concern, especially with regards to North America having to travel south then back on themselves to Natal. That is pointless really,

I hope it gets better!!

[JMBroad]

Originally Posted by Golfingworld

If one uses TAP, which I wouldn't recommend.

Hi again - good chatting with you yesterday

Again lots of interesting points but this one made me chuckle. I know TAP is known for being called Take Another Plane but personally I feel it's improved vastly in the 20 or so years I've been using it hehe

I'm curious though, other than being ridiculously expensive when compared to UK charter flights is there another reason you wouldn't recommend it?

[Golfingworld]

Thanks for the compliment mate, give me somthing to do here in wet England! Flights I reckon is a "flight of fantasy" what has been mooted. There is another key thing and that is that Charter flights cannot sell one way outbound tickets from Brasil..this is very significant as it is how Spain/Portugal operated for many years to protect Iberia/TAP businesses and the other international carriers that sell at high prices. I think the word in the trade is known as "cartel", are we allowed to say that in this day and age. Price "Cartels" are good for airlines but not for property developers or investors. The "hub" system is very very significant what has been mooted in Natal is not in my view correct or a reality. International carriers make their revenue from high yield tickets, business class so they are not going to prejudice this revenue by stopping first in Natal to pelase a bunch of weekend golfers! South Africa is an excellent example of this..you just cannot get there cheaply and the routings into to equivalent areas to Natal ((Durban/George/Capetown) are very very restricted..why becuase they want to keep their hub in J'burg and to protect SAA. Everything developers need is not what international carriers need! Cherter operators are primariliy there to fill their own hotels, so they can sell excursions and make money on the own vacation packages. They do not make added value revenue on selling cheap seats to punters who have their own place. So, the new airport theory and new flight theories are dillusional in my view. But, what do I know? Please tell me I am wrong so I can rush off and learn to Samba too!

[Golfingworld]

TAP....Lisbon airport is a mess, Heathrow terminal 2 is a bigger mess, you have to go through all this first for your £750 before you set off for Brasil for another 8 hours. Add to that 2 weeks parking at LHR for silly money, chaos to get in there due to floods, clogged motorways, now extra car security checks, walking a mile to the terminal with your bags. That's before your £19 YSL lipstick gets confiscated as it might be semtex and you have had to re-buy your drinking water airside for £2 per bottle. But, then once in the overcrowded gate which yu share with 7 other airline you can sit back and relax and enjoy the delay that TAP will almost certainly provide FOC. The good news is that when you get to Brazil you won't need many closthes, good job as TAP have one of the worst baggage loss records in the world. Apart from that I don't have strong views..does that help?

[nickohorny]

Very interesting, Thanks for the advice, However I have already reserved in GN golf, about a month back and your frightening me!! lol, i have reserved a one bed apartment, I primarily looked into the brazilians as rental targets, I tried to not get soaked up by 'guaranteed rental' chatter, it is difficult to imagine europeans and americans going there as a primary holiday when there so used to carribieans and thus, I agree It will be difficult to get the people there,
I just hope and have faith this will turn around in time, that Brazil will very accessible...

Thanks Mate

[robh]

The first principle of investment is buy low and sell high. The very reason that property prices in Brazil are low is because all the pieces that make property values high are not in place yet.

So you have two options:

1. Do nothing and be like golffantasy and wait until the cheap airlines start flying there, but then you will be way too late.

2. Do your research and make a calculated decision that things will go your way.

Personally I will be going with 2.

Regards,
Rob.