Brazil Flight Information!!

[nickohorny]

LOL this debate is great,

I love reading this, all this flight malarky applies to pretty much 'a closer to home' current emerging hotspots at the moment, Morocco. I was so interested in 'the Kings Azur plan' the building of 5 coastal resorts - 4 on the atlantic - 1 on med, the one on Med (Meditteranea Saidia - located in Saidia) basically flew out - 70% brits. It is tipped to become in time the next 'Puerto Banus', it contains 3 golf courses etc and marina, and BIG hotel chains and classy bar chains.

My point is, flights need to directly go into Ouidja, they currently do not direct. This has not stoppped investors, The king has built these resorts at a cost of 10 billion i think to dramatically improve tourism, due to be finished 1010. I am not here to nag on about Morocco as have bought Natal. But the points are pretty much similar, I realise smaller planes can be used to Morocco but people will not want to travel to Malaga then ferry over to Saidia, - THIS WILL IMPROVE, THERE WILL BE DIRECT FLIGHTS.

Same - i believe - will happen long haul to sunny Natal

Love you all!

[JMBroad]

Well, things sure got heated up around here pretty quickly.

Ok so your opinion, GW is that no one can prove that they can get cheap flights there today, and no one can prove that cheaper flights will become more readily available in the future. You want someone to prove they will become available. I'd ask you to do that for me.

Undisputed facts:

• Goldman Sachs says Brazil will soon be a leading world economy. Brazils economy is steadily gaining strength and everything indicates this is a correct assumption.
  
• Brazilian Government, BNDES and Spanish Airport authority AENA say around 5 million people will soon be flying into Natal as opposed to the current 1.3 million. The discussion envisions investing 50.7 million US$ on the new bridge over the Potengi river, renovating Ilha de Areia Branca port, an access to Sao Goncalo do Amarante airport, expanding Natal port and doubling capacity of highway RN-063 by widening a stretch between Nisia Floresta and Sao Jose do Mipibu. In addition to this investment, the construction of the new airport itself is estimated at over 150 million US$

On one hand we have reports from one of the largest investment banks in the world which also acts as a financial advisor to some of the most important companies, largest governments, and wealthiest families in the world. All my own personal research has backed this theory up and so far I've heard nothing substantial to contradict it from anyone. They say Brazil is going to be one of the worlds top 5 economies by 2030. (but you still won't be able to get there?)

We also have the Brazilian government, the Spanish government (through AENA which is state run), the Brazilian bank responsible for development (BNDES) all heavily investing specifically in Natal to increase the local infrastructure.

Just for argument's sake, lets ignore all the European and Brazilian developers who are investing millions in the area and just brush them aside by saying that all of these huge development companies, some of which are multinational, didn't do any research into the area before comitting to the investments they made. Far-fetched I know, but everyone can make up their own mind whether companies of that size would research their market before investing.

So far the only argument you've given us is that you can't get cheap flights there today. So does that mean you agree with the other facts stated here?

If you don't, please disprove them. And if you don't agree with the facts but can't provide proof of why, are we to assume that Goldman Sachs, BNDES, the Spanish Government and the Brazilian government all jumped into Brazil and Natal without doing any market research at all along with all the national and multinational development companies?

Or maybe we are all to believe that once this investment is complete they will then procede by refusing access to the tourists so that they can keep charging more expensive flights? Which gives them a higher return? 5 million passengers paying for flights and spending their cash in Natal on hotels, rentals, food and beverage, fuel for their hire cars, hire cars, excursions, visits to musuems, etc, etc, etc, or 1.3 million passengers paying a higher flight and spending cash in Natal in the same way?

And if you do agree with all of the above, how can you reasonably argue that flights to the area won't increase substantially in the near to mid-term future, say by 2010-2012?

Now my other question: If you are really as negative about Brazil as anyone who reads your posts may be lead to believe (which I don't personally after the chat we had) then why are you still flying out there on a regular basis?

So, I'm still waiting for you to provide YOUR market research which proves Brazil is a good investment so that we can add it to ours...

[JMBroad]

Bloomberg seems to also be under the mistaken belief that property in Brazil is a good idea:



"July 30 (Bloomberg) -- Advent International Corp. plans to purchase companies in industries including mortgage lending in Mexico, Argentina and Brazil for the biggest Latin American buyout fund.

The Boston-based private-equity firm will take stakes of as much as $150 million for its $1.3 billion fund raised last month, said Patrice Etlin, Advent's head of investments in Brazil. He favors mortgage firms in Brazil and Mexico, where growing middle classes are fueling demand for housing.

[...]

We understand that homebuilding and mortgage-related sectors have excellent growth potential.

Advent will dedicate half of the fund for acquisitions in Brazil, Etlin said. The firm has had a Sao Paulo office for 10 years.

Foreign investors are pouring money into Brazilian real estate, drawn by an increase in loan guarantees and household income as well as falling interest rates. In 2006, foreigners spent about $1.5 billion on property in the country, four times that a year earlier, according to Brazil's central bank."

I'm pretty sure they have done their market research too.

[wolfgang]

JMB.
Let it go.
That was a loud and clear "over and out."
He has departed to seek his amusement elsewhere.
W.

[Golfingworld]

Well I thought I'd been banned frm here but it seems I haven't, sorry Wolfgang! Let's look at other alleged selling points to Natal. The new Bridge over the Potengi. This bears absolutely no relevance to development North of Natal, let me explain why. If you arrive at the current Natal airport, to go north to the development area, you turn left, north on the road towards Fortaleza..you don't need to go into town, you don't need to go near the Praia de Meio, (where the bridge is), so this link has no relevance to easy transit to the north for arriving tourists, all of whom will arrive by air. Selling the bridge as a plus point for northerly development is like saying "The new bridge over the Thames at Hammersmith will improve links to Birmingham from Heathrow". It's in the opposite direction! Likewise, the new "super duper airport" will be further north and in closer proximity to Maracajao etc ..so who is going to drive 20 mins south, go into town to turn left, cross a bridge and go north again! Answer, nobody. My point is that these new infrastructure projects have been carefully tailored to talk up the positive as to why it is developing, but if you look at the facts they are not actually relevant to improved communications to the area in question. I have seen 20/30 webistes now on Natal, have spoken to quite a few..as yet I have only spoken to 2 Agents who have actually been there, but all be it onthe website or chatting have told me about the bridge and the airport. Mr Broad is clearly a good researcher and clearly what he says can't be disputed. But, if all analysts were right, the stock market would never drop, we'd all know when the crash was coming and all we need to do is follow their lead. Ask Jimmy Goldsmith about analysts in 87, he went to cash they lost their shirt! There is no doubt that all the potential is there, there is no doubt that all the signs are good, my doubt is that it is being talked up to intro prices that are unreasonable in realtion to the real story and consequently the growth that invesotrs expect will be swallowed up by prices that were marketed too high in the first place. Likewise, if the inital offerings are not taken up in full, there is or likely to be a huge shortfall in working capital to finish these projects...put that together with less than expected tourism, therefore lower rental guarantees and how good is the investment in real terms?

Also read this...a month old! Natal's own website!
Friday, June 29, 2007
New airport in São Gonçalo: no sooner than 2010

Another schedule was announced with regards to the new airport to be built in the city of São Gonçalo, about 30 km from Natal.
When finished, it should be one of the largest airports in Brazil. More specifically, due to its position (near Europe and North America), it should be the largest cargo hub in Brazil. Natal should benefit from the increase in tourism and trading.

Several schedules have been announced so far, but little has been done. The main problem is that the airport requires a lot of money, and neither the Governments nor the private sectors are willing to take the risks.

Recently, a new planning was announced (see report in Portuguese here).

The new idea is that BNDES (Banco Nacional de Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social - National Bank for Economic and Social Development), an official bank which fomments businesses by loaning subsidized money, will provide the necessary funds.
The building of the airport will be chartered to a private company, to be chosen by a bidding process. The winner will use BNDES money to build the airport, and will be granted the rights to explore the business for a period (yet to be determined) of 20 or 30 years. This model is different from most other airports in Brazil, which are built and managed by the Federal Government (through an agency called Infraero).
Besides charging taxes from air companies and passengers, the charterer will have rights over the Special Exporting Zone which will be built around the airport.

According to officials, the fact that the Government and its bureaucracy will not be involved with the works should speed up the process.
If everything goes as planned, the new airport should be (partially) operating before the end of 2010.[/I][/I][/I]

[JMBroad]

Good morning

Doubt you'd be banned for stimulating conversation

That is my point exactly, there are no 100% foolproof and risk-free investments especially in emerging markets but you can do the research to minimise the risk. In my opinion the risk of investing in Brazil, specifically Natal is a calculated one which is pretty safe as far as emerging markets go.

I didn't mean the bridge would be a bonus for the north or the south or either, but when the government is pro-tourism and together with the town hall invests +/- 200 million US$ in a region, it tends to be good for tourism.

That article regarding the airport is the one I quoted in which they mention the potential link to AENA I think?

However, time will tell of course.

[mitico67]

Hi there,Are all these developments north of Natal advertised to be close to the new airport(one of the biggest in South America) going to be affected by noise pollution?

[Golfingworld]

News on Thomson Fly ex UK! Last night I tried to book a 6 week flight to Natal from the UK...it said that the return leg wasn't available as they don't fly on that day...even though that day was in their timetable. So I tried a week later...that wasn't available either. So I opened another window and booked the same return date but made the outbound 2 weeks before (not 6 weeks before)...all of a sudden in the new window the return was available to me. Why, because Thomson have tweeked their reservation system to stop flight bookings over 2 weeks..why, because they want to sell 2 week holidays and not quasi scheduled flights to property owners! These are all factors to conisder when people say "you can fly cheap to Natal"..you can't, every which way but how, they are "fixing" the capacity so you pay top price. Don't believe me, try it yourself, go to Thomson Fly or 1st Choice and try and book a 6 week return....if you get one, please tell me how as I am trying to book! I tried the same with TAP online for an outbound early December and back late January....got in ok and got a "reasonable" price only £700! Then when it came to the final click it said "seats at this price are all sold"....guess what £881 return. So if I wan tto stay there for 6 weeks I can't do it with Thomson for £500 unless I book 2 returns for two weeks and throw half the tickets away and TAP want £881 after quoting me £700. So, if you are renting to your Auntie Doris and friends for a standard 2 weeker, happy days, but if not and want to use your own property for a month or so............the banana boats still run from Bristol!

[beenthere]

Originally Posted by Golfingworld

News on Thomson Fly ex UK! Last night I tried to book a 6 week flight to Natal from the UK...it said that the return leg wasn't available as they don't fly on that day...even though that day was in their timetable. So I tried a week later...that wasn't available either. So I opened another window and booked the same return date but made the outbound 2 weeks before (not 6 weeks before)...all of a sudden in the new window the return was available to me. Why, because Thomson have tweeked their reservation system to stop flight bookings over 2 weeks..why, because they want to sell 2 week holidays and not quasi scheduled flights to property owners! These are all factors to conisder when people say "you can fly cheap to Natal"..you can't, every which way but how, they are "fixing" the capacity so you pay top price. Don't believe me, try it yourself, go to Thomson Fly or 1st Choice and try and book a 6 week return....if you get one, please tell me how as I am trying to book! I tried the same with TAP online for an outbound early December and back late January....got in ok and got a "reasonable" price only £700! Then when it came to the final click it said "seats at this price are all sold"....guess what £881 return. So if I wan tto stay there for 6 weeks I can't do it with Thomson for £500 unless I book 2 returns for two weeks and throw half the tickets away and TAP want £881 after quoting me £700. So, if you are renting to your Auntie Doris and friends for a standard 2 weeker, happy days, but if not and want to use your own property for a month or so............the banana boats still run from Bristol!

Classic GW, you want to fly during peak season and you can't get charter flight prices.

A six week holiday in my villa in a tropical paradise for 881 pp with no other expenses except food and entertainment sounds like a pretty cheap holiday to me.

[Golfingworld]

Yes and I bet it would do for the other 349 people that can get there this winter! As Brasil has 180 million people, those 349 are really going to stimulate the market!