Brazil Flight Information!!

[Dotty]

Originally Posted by Golfingworld

Dotty's remarks on XL are very relevant to the overall business....this is a property website for Brazil and NE Brazil features heavily here. Many of the contributors are selling to non Brazilians, in other words foreigners who have to get there to use or rent their properties. Likewise, many of these developments have been sold on the back of cheap flights and a new super hub airport. The facts are these, many of which I stated a year ago and was attacked for my extreme views.

1. Cheap travel is over, airlines are consolidating, capacity has reduced, volume is down and sensible operators will only go to regions where there is added value profit.
2. The super hub in Natal is and was a fantasy as Brazil does not understand the concept of airline liberalisation, in fact Brazil does not even have an international airline any more!
3. No super hub, no super cheap flights, no volume arrivals, no flexibility means that the sale or rental of tourist related property is also a fantasy.
4. Exchange rate....Brazil is now too expensive.
5. Brazil is years behind many other countries in tourist development, in particular natal where the hotel accommodation is poor and no comparison to the Far East such as Thailand....Brazil is more than 20 years behind the rest of the world in this field.

Point 5 is fine if brazil is cheap...but it aint cheap any more...so you get a poor deal...this is why the whole property thing related to toursit/leisure and golf developments was always a fantasy.

Add to that there is no cheap money around any more and not enough to fund and bail out speculative developers and the concept is finished for a long long time.

Back to reality...thankfully!

You are not daft Dotty, whatever they might say to you!

You are 100% correct G.W many have bought with the belief that they can get here cheaply ,but of course that's not true at all.Even if you try to cut corners it ends up the same. Prices with Tap have gone up 600 reais overnight!
Not only are XL down ,there's also a strong likelyhood that Ryanair will follow with loses in June 2008 at already 22% .They have bitten more than they can chew!

[robh]

Originally Posted by Golfingworld

Dotty's remarks on XL are very relevant to the overall business....this is a property website for Brazil and NE Brazil features heavily here. Many of the contributors are selling to non Brazilians, in other words foreigners who have to get there to use or rent their properties. Likewise, many of these developments have been sold on the back of cheap flights and a new super hub airport. The facts are these, many of which I stated a year ago and was attacked for my extreme views.

1. Cheap travel is over, airlines are consolidating, capacity has reduced, volume is down and sensible operators will only go to regions where there is added value profit.
2. The super hub in Natal is and was a fantasy as Brazil does not understand the concept of airline liberalisation, in fact Brazil does not even have an international airline any more!
3. No super hub, no super cheap flights, no volume arrivals, no flexibility means that the sale or rental of tourist related property is also a fantasy.
4. Exchange rate....Brazil is now too expensive.
5. Brazil is years behind many other countries in tourist development, in particular natal where the hotel accommodation is poor and no comparison to the Far East such as Thailand....Brazil is more than 20 years behind the rest of the world in this field.

Point 5 is fine if brazil is cheap...but it aint cheap any more...so you get a poor deal...this is why the whole property thing related to toursit/leisure and golf developments was always a fantasy.

Add to that there is no cheap money around any more and not enough to fund and bail out speculative developers and the concept is finished for a long long time.

Back to reality...thankfully!

You are not daft Dotty, whatever they might say to you!

GW,

Have you been hiding in a hole.

In answer to your statements:

How come thomson is going to fly to Natal 2 times per week next year and how come arkefly have just extended their season. The oil price is now at $91 per barrel, which will take a few months to have an affect on airfare prices, but it will make a big difference.

Brazil does understand the concept of airline liberalisation, and it is happening slowly but surely, the passenger quota between US & Brazil was just raised (this was set by the US BTW). Minimum airfares between other countries in SA have just been lowered. Virgin are going to start a new domestic airline which will eventually become international.

You had better tell the workers on site at Natal airport to stop work as you say it isn't being built.

Brazil is still cheap in my book and the real is starting to go down to more reasonable levels as the balance of payments has gone into the red.

How is your apartment in Natal coming along BTW?

Regards,
Rob.

[davehoskings]

Originally Posted by Dotty

You are 100% correct G.W many have bought with the belief that they can get here cheaply ,but of course that's not true at all.Even if you try to cut corners it ends up the same. Prices with Tap have gone up 600 reais overnight!
Not only are XL down ,there's also a strong likelyhood that Ryanair will follow with loses in June 2008 at already 22% .They have bitten more than they can chew!

Poor Dotty, how would you know why people have bought if you aren't an agent, I would have thought most people bought becuase they want capital growth and rental income?

Ryanair have got big pockets and they can take the loss in return for market share.

[JMBroad]

Wouldn't be too sure about the size of those pockets, Dave, I've heard some worrying things about Ryanair myself.

[Dotty]

The too major World Banks had enormous pockets,but 25,000 have just lost their jobs,and it looks like Ryan Air(unfortunately )are in danger too and only time will tell.

Originally Posted by davehoskings

Poor Dotty, how would you know why people have bought if you aren't an agent, I would have thought most people bought becuase they want capital growth and rental income?

Ryanair have got big pockets and they can take the loss in return for market share.

[davehoskings]

Originally Posted by JMBroad

Wouldn't be too sure about the size of those pockets, Dave, I've heard some worrying things about Ryanair myself.

Since oil is now $92 a barrel (down from $147) it looks like their gamble paid off, they didn't lose market share and they lost one competitor XL.

[JMBroad]

Originally Posted by davehoskings

Since oil is now $92 a barrel (down from $147) it looks like their gamble paid off, they didn't lose market share and they lost one competitor XL.

I hope you are right

[Dotty]

Don't hold your breath Dave .It's a long term process..................QUOTE=davehoskings;75774]Since oil is now $92 a barrel (down from $147) it looks like their gamble paid off, they didn't lose market share and they lost one competitor XL.[/QUOTE]

[Golfingworld]

Dotty,

when you are the largest airline in Europe and every one of your passengers pays 100% upfront for their tickets..do you know how much you would have in the bank at any one time? I would say it is highly unlikely that Ryanair would have any difficulties at all and they are in a completely different business to XL and Zoom..they are not a charter business.

Rob, Is the Thomson you speak of the same Thomson that was going to fly to Natal this year and the one that just never put it on their website at the same time as their other destinations?

A freely liberated airline market does not have "quotas" it is a contradiction in terms!

Superhub..building is one thing and getting planes to go there is another, you can't get them there until it is built and from what I remember from all those websites I saw, it will be ready in 2009..is that still correct?

[robh]

Originally Posted by Golfingworld

Dotty,

when you are the largest airline in Europe and every one of your passengers pays 100% upfront for their tickets..do you know how much you would have in the bank at any one time? I would say it is highly unlikely that Ryanair would have any difficulties at all and they are in a completely different business to XL and Zoom..they are not a charter business.

Rob, Is the Thomson you speak of the same Thomson that was going to fly to Natal this year and the one that just never put it on their website at the same time as their other destinations?

A freely liberated airline market does not have "quotas" it is a contradiction in terms!

Superhub..building is one thing and getting planes to go there is another, you can't get them there until it is built and from what I remember from all those websites I saw, it will be ready in 2009..is that still correct?

GW, you need to read the earlier posts on this thread about thomson.

The quotas were created by the US not the Brazilians,

2011 is the last date I heard, but I will tell them to stop just for you GW.

How is your apartment in Natal going?