Knight Frank Posts Global House Price Index Qtr 3 '07

[sqftmag]

The latest Knight Frank Global Price Index reveals that growth in residential property prices around the world is slowing. On an unweighted basis prices globally rose by 8.2% per annum to Q3 2007 compared to 9.6% 12 months earlier. Rising interest rates have been a major factor in slowing house price growth, together with the tightening of lending criteria seen in many European countries.

The latest release of the Knight Frank Global house price index shows considerable changes from those seen in recent quarters, where the pattern of strong growth in Baltic markets was becoming almost routine. Latvia has been firmly knocked off the top spot by the recent EU newcomer - Bulgaria. Despite numerous concerns over the level of oversupply in a number of locations within Bulgaria - notably the winter ski resort of Bansko and selected coastal resort locations - Bulgaria has supplanted the previously top performing Baltic hotspot at the top of the Knight Frank league.

Latvia - the runaway success at the top of the index for the last ten quarters - has slipped considerably down the table, with price inflation over the 12 months to Q3 2007 at just over 10%.

Latvia aside, other Baltic locations have also seen growth slowing. Estonia has seen year on year price inflation fall back from the higher levels seen in previous quarters. New build properties have seen the greatest decline in asking prices, while properties in the Tallinn Old Town and in other central areas of the city have remained relatively stable in terms of price growth.

The best performer in the Asia pacific region is Singapore, where price inflation has been rising steadily since the end of 2004. Prices in Antipodean markets are also showing strong rates of growth; both New Zealand and Australia having seen prices rise by over 10%. However, growth in New Zealand has slowed, with annual growth to Q3 2007 at 11.8%, compared to 13.8% the previous quarter.

In Western Europe the previous boom regions have come back to earth with a bump. After seeing property price growth of 15% to Q3 2006, this year has seen the Irish market turn, with prices in Q3 this year nearly one percent lower than in 2006. Prices outside of the capital have been falling at a faster rate than in Dublin. Although the market is seeing negative price growth, this may be the long awaited and much publicised correction to year after year of strong positive price growth. If so, the decline in prices is relatively but when contrasted with the 12% average annual growth over the previous 5 years.

Spain, another location where the market has been rumoured to be in freefall, has seen year on year growth of 5.3%: a considerably more sustainable rate than that of 2003-4, which approached 20%.

The UK - also on the receiving end of much negative press - saw robust price growth of almost 11% to the 3rd quarter of 2007. Growth in the UK has been driven by that that in London and the South East, as previously strong performing markets in the north have slowed.

You can read the full news article here It makes quite interesting reading for those of us who invest overseas...

[propertastic]

It does make for some interesting reading - but people really need to read the footnotes that come with it because, if they look at the numbers only, then they are making some wrong assumptions.

People have to remember that it compares prices as of 30 September 2007 with those of 30 September 2006, so it is not the perfect indictor as to what is happening in the market today.

Take Latvia, for example. It's still showing good growth with a rise of 10%. The truth of the matter though is that the market rose by 28% during the first 6 months of the survey period and then dropped 18% during the second 6 month period. And everyone I speak to believes that there is another 15% to go before prices start looking sensible again.

It also needs to be remembered that different parts of each country can show very different price growths. There's no way that everywhere in Bulgaria has grown by 30% over the past 12 months. Sofia has certainly seen some good rises, but I think a lot of the growth is coming from the smaller Bulgarian cities catching up with the coast and the ski resorts.

Growth in Q3 of 2007 was 7.5% overall. For details see:

Propertastic!