Stop freaking out about whats happening with regards to properties

[MASHH]

Am writing once again abt a previous subject i spoke about earlier which is really making alot of ppl paranoid and scared...am quoting what I wrote before and adding up..

I really just wanted to write this from a banking finance background and being in the property market for almost 4 years now..

Real estate has always been and will always be the #1 secure investment for a short or but more specifically for a long term period.

whats happening in Dubai now is basically the market is stablizing which is obvious due to the credit crisis...people compare the credit crunch in the states and UK to Dubai where as in Dubai we dnt pay taxes and the rates are MUCH MORE cheaper then the rates in the states + all reports from UK, US still assures that Dubai's market is still number one for all investors..

I believe there is still a huge demand in the property market in Dubai but the only problem everyone is suffering from is FINANCE which hopefully will be resolved in the coming 2-6 months max..

The BIG INVESTORS ARE the ones who really got affected as they bought CASH where is when it comes to individuals they take a mortgage (which is more secured) and sleep well, big investor lost lots of money on the outside and now they are trying to make up their losses with the minimum profit which is understandable as they are selling to each other as mostly no one has cash and most banks are not financing..now is the right time to buy i believe if possible..

Am sorry for the ones who bought who have lost their money big time and ive read abt the AL BARRKAH who have left the country and ran away, i cant blame you from buying (investing) with them but i would say and investment should always be done with a plan not only to make money but also with whom to make money as a name, brand is also crucial...ive heared of this developer but i wudnt ever ask anyone to buy there...the big boys in the market are known and its known they can never run away and take your money...this guy will be back and will get caught and youll get your money as its not a joke or an easy run..

If the property market crash one day (inshallah it wont) it will revive really fast, what we are looking at is alot of exaguration in the prices from all developers and the huge number of projects coming out on a daily basis and still all whats done from each developer is ready projects that can be counted by fingers..banks are the key player now and as soon as they are back in financing with NEW policies and regulations the market will pick up again, developers not accomplishing there projects is due that banks are out of cash, with the new year and the new budget everyone will be happy again hopefully..

Anyways just wanted to share an opinion and please all just stay always positive and stop the rumours coz a rumour can destroy a country...

Regards,

[sasherwani2]

I am sorry to say but unless you have been living under a stone somewhere in Oman, you would KNOW that the property market HAS crashed! Waterfront plots fell 66%, Burj Dubai, apts 70%, Palm Jumeirah Signature villas 50%, Palm Jebel Ali apts 50%, JLT 30%, all Emaar offplans arent selling even at -3% premium. Noone here is spreading rumors, everyone is trying to educate each other on the updated status of the property bubble that bursted 3 weeks ago.

[DoBuy]

Originally Posted by sasherwani2

I am sorry to say but unless you have been living under a stone somewhere in Oman, you would KNOW that the property market HAS crashed! Waterfront plots fell 66%, Burj Dubai, apts 70%, Palm Jumeirah Signature villas 50%, Palm Jebel Ali apts 50%, JLT 30%, all Emaar offplans arent selling even at -3% premium. Noone here is spreading rumors, everyone is trying to educate each other on the updated status of the property bubble that bursted 3 weeks ago.

Stay of the drugs pal.

Good post Mashh.

[monsi]

Originally Posted by sasherwani2

I am sorry to say but unless you have been living under a stone somewhere in Oman, you would KNOW that the property market HAS crashed! Waterfront plots fell 66%, Burj Dubai, apts 70%, Palm Jumeirah Signature villas 50%, Palm Jebel Ali apts 50%, JLT 30%, all Emaar offplans arent selling even at -3% premium. Noone here is spreading rumors, everyone is trying to educate each other on the updated status of the property bubble that bursted 3 weeks ago.

Could you provide the basis of these numbers?

What was the asking price of each of these units 3 weeks ago and what is the asking price now?

Also, what did these units actually sell for 3 weeks ago and what have they actually sold for now?

In reality, some of the falls I have been quoted are based on highly inflated historic asking prices and extremely cheeky current offer prices... resulting is some spectacularly exaggerated price drops.

The factual numbers emerging is a more wimpy 4% fall in prices in Dubai?

"According to a new report by HSBC Global Research, property prices in the secondary market fell 4 percent in Dubai and 5 percent in Abu Dhabi. The fall in prices has been greater in Abu Dhabi, given its greater proportion of off-plan sales."

The report also states a 19% drop in the price of villas directly linked to the lack of available lending. As soon as lending frees up, villas will bounce back.

To repeat my post on another thread...

I basically skim over anything that I think may be trying to manipulate the reader.

I still stand by my rule of thumb, if it isn't ready or almost ready it is going to fall further and for longer. So anything that means 'jam tomorrow and not today' isn't going to be very attractive - limited trust means limited patience.

There are the people who are quite obviously softening people up so that they can sell to them. They may be agents or simply people who got in too deep or with too many off-plan units.

Then there are the speculators who have worked out which properties will give them the highest returns as quickly as possible.

These guys are rustling the bushes so that they can pick off the right properties. They do this by trying to spread as much fear as they can so that they can then step in as a saviour to take the property as cheaply as they possibly can and also leave the seller feeling they have done them a favour.

When people are running around like headless chickens the trick, I think, is to take almost all opinions with a pinch of salt and try to understand the motivation behind the opinion.

Sentiment will drive the market that is true, but the Dubai situation would be much worse if the Dubai market was the only market in the whole world that was experiencing a crisis of confidence.

In relative terms Dubai seems almost steady. People are probably reacting because they misguidedly thought Dubai would escape unscathed. That wasn't going to happen.

Some of Dubai's issues are outside their control - oil price; exchange rates; etc. However, as Dubai is not a democracy, it is better positioned to quickly and aggressively attack some contributory factors that are weakening its property market - mortgage availability; off-plan over-supply; etc.

I am not suggesting denial - I am however suggesting a little more calm.

[MASHH]

Originally Posted by monsi

Could you provide the basis of these numbers?

What was the asking price of each of these units 3 weeks ago and what is the asking price now?

Also, what did these units actually sell for 3 weeks ago and what have they actually sold for now?

In reality, some of the falls I have been quoted are based on highly inflated historic asking prices and extremely cheeky current offer prices... resulting is some spectacularly exaggerated price drops.

The factual numbers emerging is a more wimpy 4% fall in prices in Dubai?

"According to a new report by HSBC Global Research, property prices in the secondary market fell 4 percent in Dubai and 5 percent in Abu Dhabi. The fall in prices has been greater in Abu Dhabi, given its greater proportion of off-plan sales."

The report also states a 19% drop in the price of villas directly linked to the lack of available lending. As soon as lending frees up, villas will bounce back.

To repeat my post on another thread...

I basically skim over anything that I think may be trying to manipulate the reader.

I still stand by my rule of thumb, if it isn't ready or almost ready it is going to fall further and for longer. So anything that means 'jam tomorrow and not today' isn't going to be very attractive - limited trust means limited patience.

There are the people who are quite obviously softening people up so that they can sell to them. They may be agents or simply people who got in too deep or with too many off-plan units.

Then there are the speculators who have worked out which properties will give them the highest returns as quickly as possible.

These guys are rustling the bushes so that they can pick off the right properties. They do this by trying to spread as much fear as they can so that they can then step in as a saviour to take the property as cheaply as they possibly can and also leave the seller feeling they have done them a favour.

When people are running around like headless chickens the trick, I think, is to take almost all opinions with a pinch of salt and try to understand the motivation behind the opinion.

Sentiment will drive the market that is true, but the Dubai situation would be much worse if the Dubai market was the only market in the whole world that was experiencing a crisis of confidence.

In relative terms Dubai seems almost steady. People are probably reacting because they misguidedly thought Dubai would escape unscathed. That wasn't going to happen.

Some of Dubai's issues are outside their control - oil price; exchange rates; etc. However, as Dubai is not a democracy, it is better positioned to quickly and aggressively attack some contributory factors that are weakening its property market - mortgage availability; off-plan over-supply; etc.

I am not suggesting denial - I am however suggesting a little more calm.

Thats exactly what am trying to tell everyone....just a little more calm, but ppl like saherwani i think they are very negative maybe its the property phobia thats talking..i know ppl are suffering but the point is dnt make everyone suffer

[sasherwani2]

lol, enjoy the fool's paradise.. hope you receive complimentary lemonades there.

[memo123]

Pleas have some coffee may be it will wake you up and put you in touch with reality . No one is spreading rumors , Do stop preaching us .

Originally Posted by MASHH

Thats exactly what am trying to tell everyone....just a little more calm, but ppl like saherwani i think they are very negative maybe its the property phobia thats talking..i know ppl are suffering but the point is dnt make everyone suffer

[Djjunior]

JLT - In Feb was going for 1100 dhs... In June/July was going for 1400 dhs..
Spoke to an agent a few weeks back and they told me you could find in JLT for around 1100 dhs.. Looked on Gulf News, found distress sales for around 900 dhs (close to completion)...
So i guess price drops right now are subjective but if you take them from the peak... Then I would agree with sasherwani that prices have dropped that significantly..

[Djjunior]

I think the real test or a "real" drop would be if prices start to fall under 1500dhs for downtown areas ex. Burj/ Old Town/ Business Bay (Which may have already started)
and if prices consistently go under 1000 dhs in JLT/ Dubai Marina etc..

[monsi]

I was never convinced by the hype and I don't think there is any constructive purpose in panic.

There are very valid reasons for people to sell, e.g. if you haven't got the money for the next installment, you have to move, you have lost your job etc.

In the current buyers market, with very little funding available, these poor people will be prime targets for those hoping to pick up a bargain.

However, unless you guys know something truly awful about Dubai, if there is no driver to sell then staying calm and riding out the storm is the way to go.

Fixating on a price being X but now it is Y is a bit pointless unless you are hoping to offload something and in your head had already banked a profit that no longer exists OR are hoping something that you truly want is now within your reach.

Why is asking for calm considered foolish, yet a constant hum of the 'end is nigh' considered acceptable behaviour?

I am not suggesting you don't keep an eye on the market - but please, posting panic stricken 'end of the world' scenarios seems a bit like a desire to induce coronaries in the poor people who have no choice but to sell or run.

If there is something constructive in spreading panic (other than a Machiavellian intent to increase the number of 'distress' sales) then by all means please continue.

Djjuniors post is data - useful information.

My assessment of this data is that the prices were unrealistically inflated during the summer, when no one was buying anyway, now the final instalments are coming up (900 dhs (close to completion)) people are prepared to accept less as they may not be able to pay the last installment? If you have the funds to buy and the rental yields are good then it may be worth negotiating a purchase?

Looking at a drop from the June/July price is silly unless these units had actually sold for this amount (considering how dead the summer and then Ramadhan was I would be very surprised). If they were offered and not sold then its not a real gauge.

If these units were actually sold for 1100 dhs in February and are actually sold now for 900 dhs then this is a fair comparison?