Is the Dubai property market falling apart or finding a level?

[PropGuy]

Good article on bubble economics Daily Kos: Bubble Economics -- and the Cycles of Boom and Bust

[ghazwan]

Finding a big resistance level .... BUY at Bargin .... don't be shy to offer 10-20% of asking price

[financier888]

I have read the posts on this thread and can accept many of the points of view expressed, however, looking into the future of this market - there are two questions that I can't seem to find the answer for - namely - Who? will be these end users and/ renters that will absorb the 70,000 + or - vacant units on or about to come on the market and Where? will they come from?? Especially, as many jobs & businesses are hurting or have folded and the new visa law which grants a property owner 6 months res. - renewable... So - Who will move here? (if they are not here specifically on a job... ) How will Dubai meet it's target to grow this city into the millions in absence of a proper visa? (like Singapore, Malaysia and countless other countries...) I just can't see it...

The other stumbling block has been the proper enforcement of laws that protects investors and with many investors having got burnt or in the process - this will continue to put-off potential investors... (with the worst yet to come...)

Let's say that you are going to buy an investment for rental purposes and not concerned about the visa- with rents already dropping 50% and we're not near the summer yet - when there is another planned exodus after the school year finishes - whom will you find to rent? and at what price..?

i don't think we're even close to seeing the bottom yet and it will take the global economy to recover before you start to see people come back to Dubai and that may take years... (2-3 minimum) In the meantime, the govt has some serious issues to address and more than simple 'decrees' - action is required to really protect the people that have spent their life savings on this vision from the smaller developers who at this point, are seemingly NOT being held accoutable..

let's wait till the summer and come back to this...

[PropGuy]

I think visa on real estate will become 3 years renewable visa sooner or later because Qatar is offer 5 years renewable visa on real estate.

As for real estate market it will be slow for 2 to 3 years, imo.

[samsaf]

6 months is only the beginning...

... don't forget that the locals are not sure on the implications of such laws... they are afraid... you have to understand that... this is not the USA or Canada were everyone is an immigrant... I imagine that Dubai has asked for 5 years visa and Abu Dhabi opposed the idea strongly... but Dubai has finally been able to convience them "at least let's try it for 6 months... if you don't like it, we will cancel it"

Law here are forged on the "need to forged basis"
a lot of trial-and-error... the victims are, of course, are us..

Well... you have the play the game by the rules... which keeps changing... you have to take it... no other option...

if you don't like it... go to the USA, Europe and Canada... or even Japan... and invest and reside there... of course, once you're there your gonna miss a lot about Dubai...

[Pietman0_0]

Originally Posted by samsaf

Well, his post might made you laugh... yours, on the other hand, made me think....

First of all, I am sick and tired from people like you who eagle-eye this forum for anyone who dares to step forward to give a sense of positive review for this chapter of horror in Dubai Saga...

If you choose to close your eyes and ears and your unwilling to see a shread of light within this darkness, it's your choice..

Just please don't bully other forum posters for posting positive news just because it is against your Prophesy that Dubai is coming to an end...

The following are the facts as I saw it: (and I am living in Sharjah for the past 5 years , and my brother travels to Dubai everyday for work)

1) The commuters' traffic from Sharjah going to Dubai didn't decrease at all in the last 4 months... the traffic starts at 6.00am and goes to a standstill by 7.30am and only becomes "ok" by 10.00am.

2) The traffic has indeed decreased in Dubai, however it was due to the goverment's road-related jobs finishing (including some diversions for MetroDubai's stations) and bridges open fully for traffic, thus the traffic jam naturally decreasing...

3) Indeed there has been a lot of layoffs and the demand for housing has decreased... but it's only new back to normal figures 2-3 years ago (e.g. rents for 1 B/R houses in Discovery Garden as decreased from 120,000 DH to 60-70,000 DH) and that's reasonable... talking about 5% of overall house value in rent. That's ok!

4) I've been asking people close and far, how many of your friends has been fired? (i.e. people that you personally know) they would answer, 1 or 2... it's not like people are getting fired left and right... and usually those who do get fired are from Construction companys... but what's the percentage of people who work at construction companys? is it 10 or 20 percent of the overall population?


well... ? it's normal, there is a world-crisis... but you should not blame Dubai and it's system... it was able to rise to this level (with all of it's system's imperfections) and it will be able to rise back again... just give it a break, will you?

of course, if the world economy does recover and Dubai doesn't, well... then you're right... !

5) oh, and Burj Dubai and MetroDubai work is going-on as usuall... no slow in pace, FYI

6) I've visited the Atlantis, and the bars and restaurants are sparkling with life!

7) I've visited the malls, and while the prices are down, people are still buying and dining as usual.. where is this crisis???

8) My company, and oil and gas company, is still hiring... if you're a good talented engineer and want a job, please PM me and I will give you the link to. We're opening a branches right now in Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi...

True, this crisis has effected many people, but not everyone! Not all Dubai's property companies are ******* thieves and not all industries in Dubai are doing bankrupt and not all people are driving the to airport and leaving their cars...

True, it's not the best time to own a propertly, since cash is king, but it doesn't mean that if you own a property then you're automatically going to loss! not on the long run!

Please let's stick to the facts!

Hi Samsaf,

I have a friend who has a degree in Chemical Engineering. He is really keen to rellocate to the middle east to broaden his career experience. Do you think there might be openings available for him in your company...or any others you might be aware of?

He currently works for a leading platinum refinery in South Africa as a processing engineer. He has a typical analytic mind (common for any engineer) and enjoys working in a like minded team.

How can i come in contact with you (If you can help me) I am not sure how to send personal messages.

Thank you very much for offering to help

Kind Regards

[Roshan]

The real estate market world over has taken a beating and Dubai is no exception no matter what insulation was percieved by so called optimists.

It was greed that drove Dubai to the high prices that sank a lot of investors. A lot of investments in Dubai will actually not happen and in time to come the properties that are ready would start realizing the returns and possibly get healthy returns.

As for the future 5% ROI is what one should be looking at on rentals.

It's good that the brakes have been put on Dubai as the dreams that they had were not equating to reality.

Green community 5 BDR villas going for 2.9 million. A friend of mine sold the same villa for 5.5 million when the going was good.

In time to come looks like all of us can look at buying villas. Reality has struck realty in Dubai.

Regards

Roshan

[Josen]

What investors failed to see was the population statistics of UAE.

The last census figures released with nationality breakdown was of 2005

Population of Asians - 75%
Population of Locals - 11%
Population of Arabs - 6%
Population of Egyptians - 5%
Other Nationalities - 3%

Nationality breakdown of the last census (2007) was NOT released as reportedly the population of Asians had further increased due to the massive influx of Asian construction workers required for the construction boom. Further the % of Asians in Dubai is more than that of AD (Construction workers)

As per census of 2007 the population of UAE was 864,000 UAE nationals and 3.62 million expatriates. Dubai's population was 1.478 million

Even considering the nationality percentages have remained the same, the entire 'construction boom' in Dubai mainly catered to the requirement of the 3% 'others' and 6% 'non-local arabs'. or ± 133,000 persons, as most the construction was too overpriced for renting by the Asians.

The Govt was expecting a 6% yearly increase in population, or 6% of ± 1.5 million = 90,000 of which 9% (3%+6%) is only annual demand of 8,100 high-end housing units. The supply was over 10 times this amount

Further, in Dubai, other than Discovery Gardens & International City, there were no projects catering to the low to middle income expatriates

My reading ..... expatriates from the 3% other countries would rather rent than buy in the current surplus market and penthouses / luxury villas / signature houses will find no occupants. What really will retain value are the cheap studio / one bedrooms that would find demand from the Asian sector

[heat_wave]

whats the big deal, i moved to dubai after the boom in November and this market is normal. Its no major disaster. Its just normality. I think people in Dubai were brainwashed into thinking real estate was like playing on the stockmarket. People are buying property now but for the more ordinary reason of having a nice place to live.
Although I have to say I have come across some speculators from cash rich countries sitting on the side waiting to buy units in Burj Dubai etc.
All in all theres no reason to stress about whats happening.

[georgihh]

Originally Posted by heat_wave

whats the big deal, i moved to dubai after the boom in November and this market is normal. Its no major disaster. Its just normality. I think people in Dubai were brainwashed into thinking real estate was like playing on the stockmarket. People are buying property now but for the more ordinary reason of having a nice place to live.
Although I have to say I have come across some speculators from cash rich countries sitting on the side waiting to buy units in Burj Dubai etc.
All in all theres no reason to stress about whats happening.

Normal Market = Normal Country
Dubai = not normal
The problem is you cannot settle down in Dubai, if you have no job. Once you are terminated nothing you can do, with visit visa you cannot open even bank account (ok not anymore). Dubai is a place to come make good money pack up and go. If you start investing for the future you are finished.
Enjoy your life cash up and go