Investing in International City

[stumbled]

Originally Posted by dave3076

I couldn`t care less if you were bull, bear or millionaire. Firstly, mortgage has a t in it. Secondly, and for the last time..... You are talking about looking at buying at international city now, or in the recent past. You looked at it, assesed it, and found the figures didnt stack up, which i wouldnt argue with. But you are imposing your analysis on those of us who bought TWO years ago. For us it is cash flow positive, as i assume your London portfolio is. So lets get this straight...... im cash flow pos, my property has done nothing but rise in value, it is still intrinsically cheap in comparison to the average dubai house price, and ive got a guy in London with a London portfolio telling me its time to leave because its near the top... i mean seriously that is whats known as hypocricy! Use your own analysis of Dubai on London. I dont disagree with your advice to warn investors NOW looking at int city, but dont impose your argument on those of us who are sitting pretty, when you`re in exactly the same boat with your london property yourself, if not worse. Im not trying to score points with anyone and my initial post wasnt directed at you in any way. It was aimed at all the negative comments in regard to int city, when most of the people who bought in the last few years are sitting pretty both in terms of yield AND capital gains. Bearing in mind i assume that this is the case for most people on this forum since it is a forum for international city investors and residents. If you suggest WE get rid of our investments when you are in exactly the same boat yourself, then forgive me if i choose to ignore you, and tell others in the same boat as me to ignore you. If you were directing your points to those THINKING about buying, then i dont disagree with you.

I can't stop laughing, you just said it in your own words. If you get the time read what you have just typed, THAT IC IS EXPENSIVE AND INVESTORS SHOULD NOT BUY(indirectly), does that mean you are suggesting there should be a price correction or a crash , b4 it can become pretty for those ,whom you consider to have missed the boat can get on your ferry or boat?? All i asked was for facts, i wasn't trying to convince anyone to sell, it was just my opinion,thats why this is a forum , you read, you keep what is useful and rubbish the rest, you really under estimate the peoples knowledge here, to judge for themselves. This forum surely promotes freedom of speech and thoughts(democracy)?? people we live in a democracy, don't we??
To be honest ill leave it at that, you can ignore me if you like, didn't know you become attached so easily, investments and comments never get attached to em.Take it easy MAAAN!!
OH and you can read my posts so hard that you notice my mistakes too,lol, i am glad atleast you are taking the inputs:P. Like ,i said when one can't make their own points on the topic they resort to cheap insults,

[dave3076]

Yeh lets leave it at that.... anyone who wants to comment further on the topic of whether or not ive ridiculed myself or not please feel free! If ive contradicted myself in regard to anything ive said. Anyone want to comment on whether me agreeing with him that buying in int city today isnt overly attractive, implies me stating theres going to be a crash or a correction, when fundamentally there should of been large corrections in most run away markets yet investors hammer prices down until yields approach 2% or less. Feel free to let me know if you can differentiate between saying.....hold on to it if the figures stack up for those of us who have bought a while ago in comparison to....its not hugely attractive now as an investment. Feel free to comment on whether you think a London property portfolio owner whos portfolio is presumably cash flow positive and has netted him capital gains should be giving advice to those of us with Dubai property portfolios that are cash flow positive and has netted us capital gains is hypocritical when suggesting its time to sell or that it was at the top, when yields in dubai are triple what they are in London. Im finished, but as i say feel free to comment!

[stumbled]

Originally Posted by dave3076

Yeh lets leave it at that.... anyone who wants to comment further on the topic of whether or not ive ridiculed myself or not please feel free! If ive contradicted myself in regard to anything ive said. Anyone want to comment on whether me agreeing with him that buying in int city today isnt overly attractive, implies me stating theres going to be a crash or a correction, when fundamentally there should of been large corrections in most run away markets yet investors hammer prices down until yields approach 2% or less. Feel free to let me know if you can differentiate between saying.....hold on to it if the figures stack up for those of us who have bought a while ago in comparison to....its not hugely attractive now as an investment. Feel free to comment on whether you think a London property portfolio owner whos portfolio is presumably cash flow positive and has netted him capital gains should be giving advice to those of us with Dubai property portfolios that are cash flow positive and has netted us capital gains is hypocritical when suggesting its time to sell.... im finished, but as i say feel free to comment!

All you investors out there ,New Zealand banks are offering over 8% return on your cash deposits, now .....????
Since, you don't mind surfing the currency waves, cash in the capital return you have made on your investment and deposit your cash in New Zealand for over 8% return, then come back when the prices crashes. Now, hows that.
See what i mean, its just an idea, great minds discuss ideas, heard of that?? Lets see how many you have given on this forum,besides trying to redicule and belittle others? (lol jk )
Btw, this isn't between me and Dave. I repeat myself this is just a forum and we exchange ideas not personal wits.
Property investment and business in the UK is more complex than Dubai, as there are several types of taxes and tax planning involved, you are lucky with Dubai. Uk and Dubai are two different territories with the same principle of investments ,but different issues effecting it i-e one of them is ofcourse it can never be home, as you don't have the rights like the locals, Maybe we should discuss that someday.
Being succesful in the Uk exposes me to that principle, but i am not playing daddy here to anyone, just making a suggestion and giving out ideas, there is another cliche which applies to my suggestions, TAKE IT OR LEAVE IT.

[stumbled]

look at this

http://www.propertycommunity.com/forum/inter...r-best-ic.html

[SSM]

Examining this from a neutral viewpoint with properties in both the UK and Dubai, I am moving more funds out of the UK and into places like Dubai.
The question I asked myself was which of the following options should I take:-

1) Risk free in a bank account, let's say 7% gross, over the next five years
2) Similar yields (and that's being pessimistic since I currently earn around 15%) over the next 5 years in Dubai....tax free
3) UK property where rental yields are showing signs of falling (or already have) below mortgage rates plus prices becoming stagnant (except, so far, London)

For me, number 2. Why? Because the LONG TERM capital growth should far outstrip option 1. The risk is lower in Dubai than the UK and for me, the risk was definitely worth taking.

Is IC expensive? Well, not if you consider rental yields have risen 15% year on year in Dubai, which is why the government intervened. I only see more and more people coming to Dubai and Dubailand will aid Intl City investors. Good luck to all you guys.

[dave3076]

My bone of contention is crash mongers and english investors knocking int city as an investment because the exchange rates have turned on them. When you look at int city in base currency or for those of us that bought at the higher rate of dirham to sterling, it has been a good investment. My property has increased in value over 20% and i get a yield of over 10%. If you acknowledge the fact that 1. it is a 10 year investment 2. That rents are pretty stable....they rise with inflation. Us landlords dont put rents up and down with every price move the local property market makes. Sorry Mr Brown your rents going up this month because house prices have risen 2.5% oh but next month if they fall i`ll bring it down again, but cant promise it will stay down if property goes up another 4% the month after! My point..... if im yielding over 10% today its likely i will yield this on my initial purchase price thru any "crash". 3. That rentals go up during crashes. Only a few informed individuals buy during "crashes", and if they dont and everyone else does then by virtue you have no crash!. Rental demand goes up during crashes....bring it on! Does everyone else stop working in dubai and go back home or build campsites in the desert??? NO, they RENT!.
Ive highlighted crashes, because its become a bogey word. The uk market and a number of others have been supposed to crash for years. Remember, crash`s generally happen if there has been an accelerated period of growth. Trying to predict when that accelerated period has come to an end, would of kept you out of the UK market since 1999 or thereabouts. You are trying to predict when a runaway locomotive will stop. Dangerous business in regard to lining your pocket..... better to position yourself safely for the ride.
Given MY situation and how my investment is sitting i.e the yield im getting and the capital growth ive had. I couldnt care less if there is a crash/correction. Because i understand the fundementals and can differentiate between house prices going up and down, and the stability of rents, or should i say the stability of rents in conjunction with infllation. If im cash flow positive its unlikely that will change whether a crash happens or not. So i recieve income, whilst i let property prices rise in the long term at a more stable rate, knowing its unlikely that the supply and demand equation for property in most places, including dubai is unlikely to change any time during the near future.

[stumbled]

Originally Posted by dave3076

My bone of contention is crash mongers and english investors knocking int city as an investment because the exchange rates have turned on them. When you look at int city in base currency or for those of us that bought at the higher rate of dirham to sterling, it has been a good investment. My property has increased in value over 20% and i get a yield of over 10%. If you acknowledge the fact that 1. it is a 10 year investment 2. That rents are pretty stable....they rise with inflation. Us landlords dont put rents up and down with every price move the local property market makes. Sorry Mr Brown your rents going up this month because house prices have risen 2.5% oh but next month if they fall i`ll bring it down again, but cant promise it will stay down if property goes up another 4% the month after! My point..... if im yielding over 10% today its likely i will yield this on my initial purchase price thru any "crash". 3. That rentals go up during crashes. Only a few informed individuals buy during "crashes", and if they dont and everyone else does then by virtue you have no crash!. Rental demand goes up during crashes....bring it on! Does everyone else stop working in dubai and go back home or build campsites in the desert??? NO, they RENT!.
Ive highlighted crashes, because its become a bogey word. The uk market and a number of others have been supposed to crash for years. Remember, crash`s generally happen if there has been an accelerated period of growth. Trying to predict when that accelerated period has come to an end, would of kept you out of the UK market since 1999 or thereabouts. You are trying to predict when a runaway locomotive will stop. Dangerous business in regard to lining your pocket..... better to position yourself safely for the ride.
Given MY situation and how my investment is sitting i.e the yield im getting and the capital growth ive had. I couldnt care less if there is a crash/correction. Because i understand the fundementals and can differentiate between house prices going up and down, and the stability of rents, or should i say the stability of rents in conjunction with infllation. If im cash flow positive its unlikely that will change whether a crash happens or not. So i recieve income, whilst i let property prices rise in the long term at a more stable rate, knowing its unlikely that the supply and demand equation for property in most places, including dubai is unlikely to change any time during the near future.

You keep contradicting yourself, you mentioned in ur earlier posts English investors don't drive this market,now all of a sudden ,because i am giving you a UK investors perspertive you rekon(i leave this spelling mistake for you to chew upon...''c'') we motivate the market especially IC??its ur Arab friend, who wants to keep IC AS A LOW COST RENTAL MARKET and turn it into KARAMA PART 2.
You must know this friend ,NAKHEEL(whispers).
English investors have bought into Greens,Meadows, Marina,they were into property long before you realised there was a yield and a profit to be made, don't forget we are nation obsessed with property, i once again suggest you don't know my position in life where my finances are concerned, so would leave it at that. The only reason any investor ,let alone an English , woud be interested would be for the yield,the capital appreciation is done ,we agree on that??unless you hold it for 10-15 years and then inflation factor will kick in to increase that aspect.

All i have asked you is for facts and you have given me ramblings of your personal portfolio, and details of your currency transfers. This forum isn't about how successful you have been with your venture in IC, its to give people both sides of the coin, and you want heads on both and those coins are rare and they don't MOVE.
About currency exchange rates turning on us they are still above dhs 7 to a pound, not dhs 5,5 when the IC project was launched.I suggest before you post something you do your research, cause the way you give out information i have my reservations what you have been rambling all along if there is any truth in it. The currency conversion rate as of today....url posted.


British Pound to UAE Dirham Exchange Rate - Yahoo! Finance India

My eyes fell on your 3rd point where you say when there is a crash rentals go up.....You certainly make my day, the only reason they seem to go up is that the ratio of the rental and price of the property gets better AND HENCE THE RETURN. EG... RENTAL 10DHS PRICE 100DHS=10% return....price dhs 80(crash) and rent(controlled by dubai govt.) rent 10 dhs=12.5% return. They don't physically go up, hence, SELL YOUR INVESTMENTS AND WAIT FOR THAT CRASH!!(LOL).
Yes, when mortgages rise it sometimes becomes cheaper to rent eg(uk) than buy, in that scenario the rental demand increases and that may move it upwards,but then if there is sufficient supply of similar properties like DUBAI, then nothing goes up!!:P

[aveshbachav]

One important point people are missing out is the fact that the US interest rates have peaked and now they can only fall to avoid a recession or downturn in the US economy. However, this would imply that the USD would depreciate further but increase economic activity in the US and AGCC nations where the local currency is pegged to the USD. This would mean cheaper mortgage. Thus, making buying a more attractive option and driving prices higher. Stagnant prices in IC over the past 6 months is due to higher interest rates, i.e. expensive mortgage and more supply of property in the market. This will hoever change as lower interest rates would increase business activity and thus spending, that means more expats arriving into Dubai for work and that reason too would contribute to high rentals. Oil prices could increase as implicitly, OPEC now prices the oil in Euros to combat devaluation of the USD which is a long term trend. Thus, to combat a devalued dollar, oil prices might go higher (obviously, OPEC needs to cut oil production as US economy is slowing), high oil prices mean higher Govt spending in the UAE. My target price for 1 beds by year end is 525,000 AED.

Chow!

[stumbled]

Originally Posted by aveshbachav

One important point people are missing out is the fact that the US interest rates have peaked and now they can only fall to avoid a recession or downturn in the US economy. However, this would imply that the USD would depreciate further but increase economic activity in the US and AGCC nations where the local currency is pegged to the USD. This would mean cheaper mortgage. Thus, making buying a more attractive option and driving prices higher. Stagnant prices in IC over the past 6 months is due to higher interest rates, i.e. expensive mortgage and more supply of property in the market. This will hoever change as lower interest rates would increase business activity and thus spending, that means more expats arriving into Dubai for work and that reason too would contribute to high rentals. Oil prices could increase as implicitly, OPEC now prices the oil in Euros to combat devaluation of the USD which is a long term trend. Thus, to combat a devalued dollar, oil prices might go higher (obviously, OPEC needs to cut oil production as US economy is slowing), high oil prices mean higher Govt spending in the UAE. My target price for 1 beds by year end is 525,000 AED.

Chow!

My friend, you aren't folowing the markets then, Interest rates are on the way up, Bond markets are at their highest and US stocks have dipped for the same reason. There won't be a cut until dec2007, and then they RISE.

Stocks Fall As Bond Yields Rise | Chron.com - Houston Chronicle

[DianeLouise]

Dear Stumbled,

I have not read all your post so forgive me if I am wrong, but you seem to be suggesting that IC is a bad investment as it is overpriced and that Dubai is heading for a crash. I could not disagree with you more, I feel IC is very competitively priced and that it can only go up in value, as well as providing positive cashflow on 100% borrowed money from year 1. The population of Dubai is growing faster than anyone predicted and even though 1000's of apartments are nearing completion, a large % of them will never be on the rental market. Many of those which do will also be in a much higher rental bracket. IC really does not have much competition. Everyone seems to be saying the prices have not gone up yet, which is nonsense and you yourself have mentioned a 'distress' sale for a studio at 350,000AED, this apartment was originally sold for around 240,000AED a few months ago. Hardly a genuine distress sale to me. Also just wondering if you still consider UK to be a good investment, simple yes or no will do.