2008 the year when the supply will surpass the demand

[georgihh]

The supply is starting to speed up; most of the International city flats will be handed over during the year,
The delivery of Discovery gardens will start very soon
Only those 2 projects will delivery 30000 flats another 30000 to be delivered from various projects.
60000 thousands flats in one year.
That’s 200000 middle class people.
That’s 4 times more people (from the above category) immigrating to Dubai every year.
Or that’s 25% of the Dubai population (not counting the people with less income).

How long the investors can keep the flats empty – I say 6 months

And if they start selling at any cost the future development will hang over the economy will slow down and will take at least 3 years for the market to recover.
So good luck everybody and expect some great deals during the year

[Roshan]

Keep your money ready for distress sales. An investor starts panicking when the flats are empty for 6 months and EMI's go out every month, then they want to dump the property at any price.

Dubai has to correct and mature like other markets.

Regards

Roshan

[georgihh]

Originally Posted by Roshan

Keep your money ready for distress sales. An investor starts panicking when the flats are empty for 6 months and EMI's go out every month, then they want to dump the property at any price.

Dubai has to correct and mature like other markets.

Regards

Roshan

Good point

Everything is in the hands of the governments.
Option 1
They open the market and let it go – in this case we can buy 2 bedrooms in greens for less than one million
Option 2
They keep on delaying delivery, charging enormous fees for visas and restricting free developments – in this case I will buy a 2 bedroom in Greens for half a million

In both cases we win – Good luck

[Roshan]

georgihh,

Due to lack of man power developers are finding it difficult to complete projects, that itself could delay the deliveries.

The authorities might jump in and ensure that supply does not meet demand and maintain that lag and avoid corrections as far as possible.

Regards

Roshan

[dubaiboy]

Hi georgihh and roshan
Whatever the government do to avoid over supply , It is a fact and based on the figures u gave , it looks like 2008 is the year for that point to come, I can see that IC and Disc Grd is ready ready.
But there is a good possibility for people of UAE to get houses in these areas for cheaper rents , eg at present one need to pay 100 k for 1 Bed in Marina , but I think after 1 year it will come to 60 or 70.Once JLT , disc grd , Tecom , Marina is delivered during the course of the year.

[eyeC]

how can prices fall when the cost of building the same is going up every year

think of steel prices (check how much now )
think cement
wood
.
.
.
.
tiles, paint,even drinking water cost more now than last year

engineers cost more ,labour demand more , overhead more for comapnies they pay more for rent and for services,so everything is going up,

agents want more salary to sell and advertise for properties,tv charges more for ads.,bababba

and still some wish property prices in dubai to be cheaper today than yesterday so they can jump on the boat

[DoBuy]

The release of 6500 properties at JBR was supposed to have been an indication of how the dubai market is going.So far its had no negative effect on rental prices or sell prices.
Most in depth reports are saying prices will continue to rise till at least 2012.There are still many developments to be launched especially at Waterfront and Palm Deira.So many tuned in developers who know the market wouldnt bother launching if they felt the market was going to overheat in the next couple of years.Plus as has been mentioned
material and labour cost is shooting up.In the UK where I am people were predicating a crash or slowdown 4/5 years ago.Insteasd prices have shot up and now these same people who had waited for the crash and cheaper properties have no chance.The same will happen in Dubai to all those doom merchants.

[savais]

Originally Posted by georgihh

The supply is starting to speed up; most of the International city flats will be handed over during the year,
The delivery of Discovery gardens will start very soon
Only those 2 projects will delivery 30000 flats another 30000 to be delivered from various projects.
60000 thousands flats in one year.
That’s 200000 middle class people.
That’s 4 times more people (from the above category) immigrating to Dubai every year.
Or that’s 25% of the Dubai population (not counting the people with less income).

How long the investors can keep the flats empty – I say 6 months

And if they start selling at any cost the future development will hang over the economy will slow down and will take at least 3 years for the market to recover.
So good luck everybody and expect some great deals during the year

I am not so sure about 2008. Yes, if all the projects completed on their actual date, it would have been true. However, all those projects that were slated for 2008 are only going to be ready mid to end 2009. So I would think that 2010 is the year when the market will correct. Don't expect drops of 20-30% because I don't think that will happen, not everywhere, only in places that are too inflated at the moment.

Then again, what do I know, just the same as you. It is all about opinions, otherwise EVERYONE would be a smart investor.

[DoBuy]

Originally Posted by savais

I am not so sure about 2008. Yes, if all the projects completed on their actual date, it would have been true. However, all those projects that were slated for 2008 are only going to be ready mid to end 2009. So I would think that 2010 is the year when the market will correct. Don't expect drops of 20-30% because I don't think that will happen, not everywhere, only in places that are too inflated at the moment.

Then again, what do I know, just the same as you. It is all about opinions, otherwise EVERYONE would be a smart investor.

I agree with you that the inevitable late deliveries will hold off price corrections.AT the end of the day none of us,smalltime investors or financial institutions know whats going to happen.I do think if your intending on holding onto your property long term then you could possibly ride out the storms and come out the other end having made a tidy profit.After all,come 2020,with Dubailand and other projects in the pipeline Dubai should become one hell of a city.

[savais]

Originally Posted by DoBuy

I agree with you that the inevitable late deliveries will hold off price corrections.AT the end of the day none of us,smalltime investors or financial institutions know whats going to happen.I do think if your intending on holding onto your property long term then you could possibly ride out the storms and come out the other end having made a tidy profit.After all,come 2020,with Dubailand and other projects in the pipeline Dubai should become one hell of a city.

Agreed, price corrections will only impact short-term investors, not the long-term investors or end users because in the long-term, they are not likely to make a loss.
I bought my property in dubailand and was very excited at the time. Sure, these delays have toned down my enthusiasm, but even though it will take longer to complete, when dubailand is eventually ready, it should be a fantastic location.