Hold Your Properties!

[Doctor Robert]

There is no such thing as a correct price in this country lol

i have a theory that Dubai will be one day become a city populated by the very rich and the poor.
the middle class will be marginalized, just enough to keep things running. This will become a city where the world's richest can go to and relax!

so in the mean time, prices keep climbing. not a bad thing for investors at all!

so to all those people who claim the "bubble is bursting"...we have been hearing this for years. we are past the threshold, there is no bubble anymore. Dubai's economy is almost self sufficient, and real estate is the driving force.

So worry not, buy, sell, rent, buy again. Just do it while u can still afford it!!

[Fran]

A seasonal pattern exists in the Dubai housing market, and analysts have noted an annual spike in prices in September/October over the past few years. This is when the summer holidays are over and the wealthiest expatriate families return to town. It is also when new expatriates are most likely to choose to arrive and business activity picks up.

The summer slowdown in the booming Gulf States is of course nothing like it used to be in the old days. Then you could pack your bags and head to Europe in late May and return in mid-September and not have missed a thing.

Now business activity continues over the summer, with most expatriates on contracts that only allow for a month of holiday, and a good deal of planning work gets done over the summer. In the real estate business too, people do buy and sell property over the hot months.

But there is a point when rushing around with documents in almost 50C temperatures does become rather wearing for all but the most dedicated, and the big decision makers tend to be absent. The argument for waiting until cooler weather returns then looks very attractive.

Sleepy summer

The result is therefore that the real estate market cools down over the summer months and then tends to burst back into life in the autumn. More buyers mean that prices tend to go higher, after a few ‘distressed sales’ over the summer months, and sellers who can wait for this moment generally do just that.

In the heat of the summer there are always a few sellers whose patience or finances run out and for the real bargain spotter this can be a good time. Indeed, flipping on properties bought in the summer into the buoyant autumn season is a clever trade.

Why should it be any different in the summer of 2008? There are some concerns that the Dubai property market is overheating, although new project launches are sharply down on a year ago and the new escrow account system is working well.

The cancellation of one project on the Palm Jebel Ali by Damac Properties has caused some ripples in the local market. But pessimists about Dubai real estate are always with us, and have been proven wrong so far.

Autumn price spike

Surely this autumn the prospects for renewed interest in local real estate, and another autumn price spike are better than ever. Local interest rates are falling, and with high inflation there are negative real interest rates in Dubai. That means the local economy is effectively paying real estate investors to buy property.

Meanwhile, the supply of property particularly in the affordable category is well below demand from the constant flow of new expatriates into the booming emirate. And on the basis of international comparisons Dubai real estate remains cheap, albeit with prices now rising sharply.

With the local and global stock markets delivering negative returns for investors this year, and deposit accounts paying miserable interest rates, Dubai property stands out as one of the few asset classes with upside potential, and money usually flows to where it will achieve the best returns.

[Thakur]

very eloquently put Fran

[iced]

The real problem that will cause prices to fall is slowing liquidity and with crdit crisis and UAE central bank tryin to rein in loans then there will definitely be a slowdown in prices which may last longer than just the summer

[Demoniise]

The slowing liquidity will mean less people able to afford their own apartments and maybe even affect the developers from completing existing and future projects. Will this not mean that demand will still exceed supply and therefore increase upward pressure on the rental market for existing properties??????? So really this is fantastic news for people who bought for rental purposes rather then speculating on the price increases!

[Savvy]

Do factor in the 15% price increase of Steel, which might go beyond 40% if china starts to buy more steel because of its demand. Although authorities have put a fixed price for cement, labor shortage and rising cost of living will affect the launch prices of the new projects coming in.

So when potential buyers come and find the re-sale market cheaper than the new off-plan launches, they will certainly opt for cheaper re-sale markets. So guys hold on to your properties, dollar is making it swing back against euro n the basket. This would dip the commodities markets specially gold, which will force investors to suck money out and pump into safer areas.

With the UAE inflation in double digits and interest rates still low, until the feds increase the rates in coming quarters, I would say holding on for the next 6 months would be a wise decision.

Cheerz

[Fira]

i want to buy 1 studio in Remraam. i have offer 1200 net.
But badrah studio 23% all in. What you guys are thinkig shell i go and buy?
i need urgent advise.

[cheemz]

Where as i surely hope Dubai cityscape brings the market full swing into action, I feel this year with a lot of negative press in the media (Morgan Stanley's report, Lack of transparency reports, senior executives being investigated etc...) people are going to be much more cautious with their purchases. I feel the hype is just being built up in regards to past trends...
Most people i speak to are concerned with the whole "don't worry, once Dubai Cityscape comes, everything will boom again" mentality!
Let's use Abu Dhabi cityscape as an example... Investors showed immense demand which caused developers to raise prices in an unjustifiable manner, yet people still bought whatever they could... After the show, people found they couldn't sell their properties as they had anticipated...
I think its a big question mark as to what will happen... If more bad press comes into the media, you'll find investors using much more diligence rather than the past where things resembled more of a fish market!

[iced]

Originally Posted by Demoniise

The slowing liquidity will mean less people able to afford their own apartments and maybe even affect the developers from completing existing and future projects. Will this not mean that demand will still exceed supply and therefore increase upward pressure on the rental market for existing properties??????? So really this is fantastic news for people who bought for rental purposes rather then speculating on the price increases!

Yes rents should go up but the downside will be price falls as people can raise money to buy and thus a reduction in demand

[iced]

Originally Posted by cheemz

Where as i surely hope Dubai cityscape brings the market full swing into action, I feel this year with a lot of negative press in the media (Morgan Stanley's report, Lack of transparency reports, senior executives being investigated etc...) people are going to be much more cautious with their purchases. I feel the hype is just being built up in regards to past trends...
Most people i speak to are concerned with the whole "don't worry, once Dubai Cityscape comes, everything will boom again" mentality!
Let's use Abu Dhabi cityscape as an example... Investors showed immense demand which caused developers to raise prices in an unjustifiable manner, yet people still bought whatever they could... After the show, people found they couldn't sell their properties as they had anticipated...
I think its a big question mark as to what will happen... If more bad press comes into the media, you'll find investors using much more diligence rather than the past where things resembled more of a fish market!

With due diligence prices will fall. More bad press regarding bribery and Tamweel. When off plan prices exceed ready property prices you know a fall is coming when people take second and do the maths and risk management calculations.

It will probably be a couple of years when we see the full effects of downward price movements