2009 predictions for Ajman?

[anwar khan]

Originally Posted by salami05

Any sweet homes investors pls reply me i urgently need your help

Yes Sir, I am one of the investors of Sweet Homes, invested in Ajman Uptown ..
How can I help you?

[Kjarkata]

Seems like investment in Ajman is further going down after the new visa rule announcement. There are no buyers and many sellers. Many investers are also willing to take the burden of cancellation charges. The real question is how would it look like in near future, say 6-12 months from now. The goverment also needs to invest a hudge sum for the infracture, electric, new airport, etc and with this level of investor confidence, I see a total downfall of Ajman property investment. Any suggestion how would Ajman Gov. react to such a situation?

[Kjarkata]

Does any one know who is the master developer of Ajman Boulevard. I know AA property is the developer but not sure who is the master developer for infracture/electric/water/roads, etc

[paul66]

01/JUN/2009
New HSBC Report: UAE property market starts its comeback

Property prices in Dubai are bottoming out with initial signs of confidence returning to the market, new research said yesterday.

"Distressed stock is gradually clearing, with further signs of consolidation as volumes continue to pick up. Also, more recently, mortgage providers have moved to ease their requirements, raising loan-to-value (LTV) and relaxing credit norms, which we view as a further sign of some normalcy returning to the market," HSBC said in its "Property Ladder" report.

According to the bank, the May transaction survey suggests that the market is starting to bottom out, with agreed prices up four per cent and five per cent month-on-month (m-o-m) in April and May, respectively.

"On the ground market testing confirms that the distressed stock is gradually clearing due to renewed interest as well as some sellers repricing, pulling their properties off the market, or putting them up for lease. Sentiment seems to be improving and sellers are now less willing to negotiate. Anecdotal evidence also suggests that foreign investors seem to be back in the market and there are bulk buyers of property for investment purposes."

Besides, most of this year's transactions have been conducted in cash, but mortgage purchases are starting to pick up following the recent change in policy by lenders. Apparently, Standard Chartered and RAKBank are leading the way, the report said.

While agreed prices are now down 23 per cent from the September 2008 peak, "we believe that it is important to compare agreed prices to advertised prices in order to fully understand the extent of the downturn". According to the report, prices are down 65 per cent from the peak asking prices to the agreed prices.

David Lepper, Head of UAE Equity Research, HSBC Global Research, said: "Market data from April and May show a range of positive indicators: agreed property sale prices are rising, volumes are holding up well, and banks have loosened their lending criteria. However, we will not be able to discern a sustainable trend until later in 2009, and while we note these positive developments, the market as a whole is coming off a very low base, given the sharp declines since the market peak. Credit growth remains subdued, and the UAE economy still has challenges to deal with."

While apartment prices (which account for 85 per cent of transactions) have started to turn around, up nine per cent in May 2009, villa prices continue to come under pressure, down 11 per cent m-o-m. Villa agreed prices have now fallen 49 per cent since the September 2008 peak, compared to only 16 per cent for apartments.

The steeper decline in villa pricing is partly due to a sharper upturn last year, but is also a result of affordability, in light of lower mortgage LTV. "Transaction prices could be understated as buyers could potentially understate the value of their property in order to reduce registration fees. That said, however, the discrepancy is unlikely to be large, since properties with suspiciously low values are typically investigated by the regulator. This means that actual prices should be somewhere in between asking and agreed, which are now starting to converge," HSBC said.

However, there are still potential risks. With the summer approaching, volumes are likely to soften leading to short-term price volatility. The school year coming to an end in June, and more supply coming on the market could lead to renewed weakness.

According to the report, construction costs are likely to come down further although the building materials price index points to a 20 to 30 per cent price drop from the July 2008. "We believe that construction costs are likely to continue to trend downwards," HSBC said.

YIELD COMPRESSION

Yield compression is now apparent as rentals continue to slide (down 41 per cent year-to-date), while prices start to stabilise. Rental yields are down from seven per cent in March to 5.9 per cent in May. However, yields on asking prices are higher, upwards of 10 per cent in May.

Rental yields initially expanded, as prices were first to get hit by tightening credit conditions. Rentals, on the other hand, were only impacted after the first lay-offs. "Considering that rentals are a pure reflection of demand/supply dynamics, we believe they are likely to see further weakness as more stock comes on to the market."

According to HSBC, the May survey of advertised listings shows initial signs of stabilisation as transaction prices lead advertised aspirations. While down 18 per cent m-o-m in March, advertised prices in Dubai were up three per cent in April and down one per cent in May. The advertised data highlights no m-o-m change in apartment prices in May, but a three per cent m-o-m decline in villa prices.

Dubai advertised listings saw a gradual decline over the past two months despite more stock being delivered, falling 11 per cent from 5,782 in March to 5,173 in May.

"We believe this adds further credence to our analysis and shows that stock is clearing and/or listings are being pulled off the market. In any case, this is supportive of pricing. Also the shift in mix towards lease listings persisted in May 2009, increasing to 15 per cent, the highest level since we started our survey in September 2008."

ABU DHABI

Advertised prices in the capital are also showing signs of stabilisation, up two per cent and seven per cent, in April and May, respectively. Villa prices underperformed apartments, declining by four per cent m-o-m in May, while apartment prices rose eight per cent m-o-m. The bank believes this has to do more with lower affordability due to tightening liquidity than preference, said HSBC.

QUALITY UNITS IN FOCUS

In Abu Dhabi and Dubai, buyers and tenants are showing renewed willingness to pay for better units and better locations, a report by Landmark Advisory said yesterday. "Even if decline patterns differ between Dubai and Abu Dhabi, falling prices are creating opportunities that boost demand in both markets. In April, we observed strong leasing and higher sales volumes," said Jesse Downs, Director of Research & Advisory Services in the Q2-2009 real estate report on Abu Dhabi and Dubai.

"Since mortgage activity is low, cash buys constitute a significant portion of transactions. Therefore, to accurately assess price trends, it's critical to have access to data sets containing both transaction types. In Dubai, Emaar is faring best in terms of demand and pricing," she added. Downs said with a flight to quality clearly under way, end-user preferences are differentiating prices in favour of developers such as Emaar and preferred locations such as Dubai Marina. In the Q1 of 2009, Emaar master developments accounted for approximately two-thirds of sales and 57 per cent of new leases. "More specifically, units developed directly by Emaar represented over half of sales and 39 per cent of new rentals."

Dubai Marina was the most popular area among renters, capturing 30 per cent of all new annual leasing contracts. Emirates Living came in second, at 16 per cent.

As for Abu Dhabi, "the issue of first-phase master development integration will leave certain Abu Dhabi developers more vulnerable in the short to medium term," said Downs. Landmark Advisory's analysis shows a positive correlation between price performance and proximity to central Abu Dhabi.

source: TigerZilla.com : New HSBC Report: UAE property market starts its comeback

[Kjarkata]

What is the predication of Ajman, any idea if the market would pickup shortly

[financier888]

Originally Posted by Kjarkata

What is the predication of Ajman, any idea if the market would pickup shortly

'Pick-up shortly?' alamak....! With prices dropping like a stone in your pool? and tens of thousands of more units shortly ready for handover in Dubai - why would Ajman pick-up? Considering the bodies of investors that have gotten burnt up there? Investors that were buying and paying AED 400- AED 500 psf - will be seeing units completed for half that amount. Many of the buyers that flocked to Ajman were banking on the visa - which is now out of the equation. They were outrpriced in the Dubai market - thus the move to Ajman - that is no longer the case...

When was the last time your drove around Ajman? Have you seen ALL the buildings that are close to completion? Take a drive around the city. Note the ones that are completed, but not being handed over because there is no electric! and they are in the centre of the city!

better rethink it and take a closer look...

[paul66]

financier888, I do not agree with all of your comments.

Firstly, you are only looking at the current situation (like the damn British media), Looking 2 years ahead, yes Dubai will have plenty of units completed, but prices will also have risen or at least start to rise by then to on average 1200AED/sqft. Ajman will still offer a cheaper option at half the price.

There are still good developers in ajman, only 1 or 2 may be crooks! The Visa situation will need to change and undoubtly will do so within the next 2 year timeframe for the sake of Ajman Government - who need people and businesses to develop.

Electricity and Water situation is being sorted, but of course things take time.

If you are looking to flip your property in ajman, i agree, forget it unless you are willing to wait.

If you are looking to use your apartment or let it out in the future, hold on. Or if you dont already own any, buy at these over discounted prices from a reputable builder where construction is full speed ahead.

Remember, prices wont stay down here too long....they never do.

Paul

[AjmanInvestor]

No light at the end of the tunnel....its getting worse than dubai,,,,rates are crashing from Dhs 750/sq ft to original levels of Dhs 250/sq ft and even lesser ....practically there is no single buyer for the thousands of properties available in ajman...and most of them are still sand.....not even started but payments have been made by buyers and investors....its a scary situation....Good Luck to all investors and buyers

[financier888]

Originally Posted by paul66

financier888, I do not agree with all of your comments.

Firstly, you are only looking at the current situation (like the damn British media), Looking 2 years ahead, yes Dubai will have plenty of units completed, but prices will also have risen or at least start to rise by then to on average 1200AED/sqft. Ajman will still offer a cheaper option at half the price.

There are still good developers in ajman, only 1 or 2 may be crooks! The Visa situation will need to change and undoubtly will do so within the next 2 year timeframe for the sake of Ajman Government - who need people and businesses to develop.

Electricity and Water situation is being sorted, but of course things take time.

If you are looking to flip your property in ajman, i agree, forget it unless you are willing to wait.

If you are looking to use your apartment or let it out in the future, hold on. Or if you dont already own any, buy at these over discounted prices from a reputable builder where construction is full speed ahead.

Remember, prices wont stay down here too long....they never do.

Paul

Hi Paul, I do agree with you in taking the 'long-term' approach. However, in so far as there only being 1 or 2 crooks? - there is much going on that may never see the light of day.. and it's far more complicated but over the next fews months - you'll see what I am referring to.

Yes, the electric should be sorted out in about two years - however - when was the last time your drove around Ajman? Have you seen most of the developements and construction? - I am talking about 'inside the town' - not simply emirates city.... If and when you do drive up there and check it out - take note of the quality of the construction.... in many cases you will see that it is inferior to the qualities and standards you will see in Dubai - I know this for a fact having worked for a developer and the prices to construct in Ajman we cheaper than in Dubai - and it was directly related to 'quality'

If you can buy completed units in Ajman and the bigger the units the better - (noting the demographics for rental demand) in the AED 300 or less - than yes, I think you have a good deal - however, do you know what the current demand is for rentals up there now? or where they may be in another year - or two?

If you are buying as a user - than it won't matter - as an investment - that's another issue entirely.

apprecaite your comments.. thanks

[shubh]

It is not necessary that prediction will be always right. But it is nice starting at least it would guide the new investors. I think, investors may expect at least 15% improvement in the real estate market.