UK PROPERTY MARKET BUST OR STALLED???

[Gerry Pridham]

Hi Anotherpropertyguy.
The article is confusing in the way it presents its statistics. First of all, the first stat sentence says that overall returns have dropped 9.5%. that's no surprise because for the past five years, they have been somewhere between 25% and 16%.

Then he mixes residential with commercial and industrial and retail, and then throws in a mix of comment about returns in property companies (referring to share prices of property companies, but doesn't state whether these are builders or companies investing in retail, commercial, industrial or what.

Anyway, I am sure our primary interest is in the residential sector, and more useful information is obtained from Rightmove for up to the minute movements, then Halifax and Nationwide reports for actual completions albeit lagging the Rightmove figures by around six weeks, because Rightmove publishes asking prices and Halifax and Nationwide publish completion prices.

My prediction is that asking prices will soften only slightly, whereas completion prices will be the ones to watch, though they lag the movements in the market somewhat, they are what's important for longer term trending.

It may well be the case that property prices will drop this year, but that should be of no concern to anyone who has held property for more than three years (unless it's mortgaged to the hilt and the investor can't withstand a return to standard rate mortgages when the initial falsely low interest rate expires). We always say this is a long term business, and if prices do fall this year, it's more likely they will rise again next year.

[Paul]

As far as buy-to-let goes the news seems to be increasingly positive - Here's a few recent articles to that effect:

Landlords confident over buy-to-let future – aboutproperty.co.uk

Assetz® News - Buy-to-let feeling positive

Landlords enjoy windfall from global storm - Scotsman.com Business

Nationwide sanguine about buy to let - RL news

[Aegean]

Originally Posted by jackdylan

I have just purchased a great new investment that I am getting my IFA to put into a SIPP.

It is a hotel room with a guarenteed 12% in the first year, no hassle.
After that I get 50% of the revenue

I have just sold a buy to let and this looks a really good alternative.

Quest2invest are the selling agents

If Harrogate or York good investment.

[Paul]

York is the 2nd 'safest bet' in the country according to Knight Frank!

[Fizzypopp]

I have been following this thread with some interest to see what the opinion is concerning the UK market. Our view is as it has been for many years that the market is being driven by false premises. Perhaps I am from the wrong camp. But as markets go in cycles and the real money people who make or break the wider picture are pulling from the residential markets in the UK there has to be a change at some point. Noting that 2 out of 5 employers are now for the first time in the last decade looking at substantial lay offs we will see the market alter slowly. The UK is still some 4-6 months behind the US and it has a very much higher reliance on credit to sustain the 'propping up' that has been seen by lax lending and over relaxed government control.

I can still see periods of hardening and softening as the market erodes. But overall as the UK has the inability to alter its economy from a service debt driven one into an export driven one it has little room for manouvering unlike the US that has vast resources both materially and manpower. The US will we hope alter its course over the next 2 - 3 years and start to get back some of its shape with regard to deficit control. Any controlling that Darling has to do if he has any morals will affect the economy greatly and very negatively

We are speaking to people / investors regularly and the consensus is at best to do nothing at this moment while they watch and wait.

Estate Agents who we have known for over 10 years say it is a very uncertain time and the view to survive is to diversify.

Paul

[propertyforum]

I reckon its just stalled. Property is still being sold and brought just not as much as this time last year.

[sqftmag]

DeeDee's answer get my vote!
Regards,
Michele

[Property Developer]

I see plenty of buying opportunities ahead for cash buyers. The big institutional money is starting to go back in at these reduced levels. There won't be another year like 2008 for a while. Fill your boots!!!

[overseas wills]

I think this could be an interesting year for buyers but my concern is if the house prices fall and I believe they are falling how long will it take to get them back up again?

[Sanjay]

Hi,

Those in the market - keep buying AT THE RIGHT PRICE - as long as rental is strong - the buy to let model will work. My most profitable properties in my portfolio were bought.....in the last recession. The market will continue to grow as there is a dire shortage of property IN THE SOUTH EAST! - My opinion anyway