straw poll on future property market

[Paul]

There seems to be much contradictory opinion and figures regarding future property values, though the majority predict some sort of decline - so come on then, how about a quick straw poll?!

1. % predictions for 2008
2. % predictions over next 5 years

[Gerry Pridham]

Hi Paul,

First, I assume you mean the UK property market because it's posted in the UK section. Second, I assume you mean the market as a whole, rather than any particular area the investor would choose to invest in within the UK.

So on those assumptions, this is my business planning input, not a prediction. I don't have a crystal ball, but I do have to make some assumptions which support our investment decisions:

Within one year. Property prices will drop by around 10%. Advertised prices may not make this apparent, but I think the average completion price will drop by around 10%. More importantly, for BMV investors who seek specifically to buy from motivated sellers, prices compared with 2006/07 will create opportunities to buy up to 20% cheaper than in 2007.

Within five years.
Low expectation is that property prices will be at the same level as their peak of 2007.
High expectation is that they will be 25% more expensive than their peak of 2007.

If I get it grossly wrong, we'll have to work another few years until retirement. If I get it right, or underestimate the growth, we'll be retiring in 2010.

[Paul]

Hi Gerry,

Correct on both assumptions - Sorry, I should have made that clear.

And for what it's worth I think your plans look pretty reasonable!

[sha-sl]

well by looking at the current situation in the property market I could say that the prices as of now \decreased 10% when compared to that of the last year. When we are considering the price for the next 5 years there will be increase in price about 15% in the property market.